ENTRY ID: SCALE-FISH-GLOBAL-001
Date added: 10/07/2026
Entry status: [ ] Draft [ ] Under review [x] Published
Submitted by: GSTIA Library Team
LLM: DeepSeek-R1

1. Solution Title

Establish a global ecological security governance framework to combat fish stock depletion driven by planetary disruption.

2. Step-by-Step Implementation Guide

This guide outlines a sequenced, multi-decade strategy for global governance institutions (UN, FAO, UNEP, WHO, World Bank, WTO, G20, Regional Fisheries Management Organisations, International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea) and coalitions of nation-states to address fish stock depletion as a global ecological security threat. The approach recognises that overfishing is driven not only by unsustainable fishing practices but also by ecosystem degradation, pollution, climate change, illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, and transboundary fisheries dynamics, with profound implications for food security, conflict, and global stability .

Step 1 – Establish a Global Commission on Fisheries Security and Ecological Resilience

• Action: The UN General Assembly, with support from FAO, UNEP, UNCLOS, and the G20, mandates the creation of an independent High-Level Commission on Fisheries Security and Ecological Resilience.
• Responsible Actor: UN Secretary-General / FAO Director-General / UNEP Executive Director.
• Completion Looks Like: The Commission is formed with a 3-year mandate, comprising leading fisheries scientists, ecologists, oceanographers, fisheries security experts, and security specialists. Its core tasks are to:
  1. Formally recognise fish stock depletion as a global ecological security threat driven by planetary disruption, not merely a fisheries management issue .
  2. Develop a “Global Fisheries Security Framework” integrating ecological, food security, and security dimensions.
  3. Map global fisheries risk pathways, including the role of ecosystem degradation, pollution, climate change, IUU fishing, and transboundary fisheries dynamics .
  4. Identify regions at risk of fisheries-related conflict, political instability, and food insecurity, noting that fish comprises approximately 20% of animal protein intake for 3 billion people globally .
  5. Propose a “Global Fisheries Deal” for cooperative management and sustainable use of shared fish stocks.

Step 2 – Establish a Global Fisheries Security Monitoring and Early Warning System

• Action: Create a globally integrated monitoring and early warning system tracking fish stocks, fisheries productivity, and security risks, with specific focus on ecological drivers of fish stock depletion.
• Responsible Actor: FAO / UNEP / World Bank / Global Fishing Watch / RFMOs.
• Completion Looks Like:
  • Global fisheries monitoring network established, integrating satellite data (VMS, AIS), catch reporting, stock assessments, and ecological health metrics.
  • Global “Fisheries Risk Dashboard” with open-access sharing of:
    • Fish stock status (% of stocks sustainably fished, overfished, collapsed) .
    • Fisheries catch data (reported and reconstructed) .
    • IUU fishing estimates and hotspots .
    • Ecosystem health indicators (coral reef health, kelp forest status, ocean acidification, hypoxia) .
    • Climate impacts on fish stocks (range shifts, productivity changes) .
    • Transboundary fisheries dispute risks .
  • Early warning indicators for:
    • Fisheries-related conflicts (subnational and transboundary) .
    • Fisheries-driven migration and displacement .
    • Fisheries collapses and food security crises .
    • Illegal fishing activities and trafficking .
  • Annual global “State of World Fisheries Security” report to the UN General Assembly.

Step 3 – Reform Global Fisheries Governance to Integrate Ecological Security

• Action: Overhaul global fisheries governance frameworks to treat fisheries as a strategic security asset, integrating ecological, food security, and security dimensions into all fisheries policy decisions.
• Responsible Actor: FAO / UNCLOS / UN Fish Stocks Agreement / World Bank / G20.
• Completion Looks Like:
  • Establishment of a UN “Fisheries Security Council” or equivalent high-level body, with representation from security, environment, development, and food security communities.
  • Universal ratification and strengthening of the UN Fish Stocks Agreement and UNCLOS provisions on fisheries, with binding obligations for:
    • Science-based catch limits (Total Allowable Catches) that reflect ecosystem health .
    • Protection of critical fisheries habitats (coral reefs, mangroves, kelp forests, seagrass beds) .
    • Transboundary fisheries data sharing and joint monitoring.
    • Conflict prevention and dispute resolution mechanisms.
  • Integration of fisheries security into global security risk assessments (UN Security Council, NATO, G7/G20).
  • Mandatory ecological impact assessments for all major internationally-financed fisheries and aquaculture developments.

Step 4 – Protect and Restore Critical Fisheries-Related Ecosystems Globally

• Action: Implement a global programme to protect and restore ecosystems that support fish stocks, including coral reefs, mangroves, kelp forests, seagrass beds, and wetlands, with a focus on transboundary and high-biodiversity areas.
• Responsible Actor: UNEP / FAO / Ramsar Convention / CBD / World Bank / G20.
• Completion Looks Like:
  • Global target for marine protected areas (MPAs) and no-take zones, recognising that well-managed protected areas can dampen extinction risk by at least twofold and help restore fish stocks .
  • Restoration of degraded coral reefs, mangroves, kelp forests, and seagrass beds, recognising that:
    • Coral reefs provide shelter, food, and breeding grounds for nearly a quarter of all fish, and damages from floods would double and from storms triple without coral reefs .
    • Kelp forests occupy roughly 25% of the world’s coastlines and provide food and ecological infrastructure for thousands of fish, invertebrate, and marine mammal species .
    • Mangroves provide critical nursery habitat for fish and coastal protection .
  • Protection of freshwater fisheries habitats, including rivers, lakes, and wetlands, recognising that freshwater fauna are dying at higher rates than those in terrestrial and marine systems .
  • Global “Fisheries Habitat Fund” to finance ecosystem restoration in critical fisheries areas.

Step 5 – Regulate Global Pollution in Fisheries Habitats

• Action: Establish binding global agreements to reduce pollution and nutrient loading that degrade fisheries habitats and drive ecological regime shifts (e.g., coral bleaching, hypoxia, harmful algal blooms).
• Responsible Actor: UNEP / FAO / WHO / WTO / G20.
• Completion Looks Like:
  • Global treaty on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff, with binding limits on agricultural and industrial discharges, given that nutrient overabundance promotes algal blooms that can produce hypoxic dead zones and harm fisheries .
  • Global plastics treaty with binding limits and enforcement, recognising that microplastics have been found at every scale and current estimates project about 12,000 megatons of plastic accumulating in the environment by 2050 .
  • Global agreement on ocean acidification drivers (carbon emissions), recognising that oceans are absorbing carbon dioxide at a pace roughly 50 times faster than historical rates .
  • Global ban on destructive fishing practices (dynamite, cyanide) that damage coral reefs and other habitats .
  • Global wastewater treatment standards that remove pollutants harmful to fisheries habitats.

Step 6 – Combat Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) Fishing Globally

• Action: Enhance international law enforcement, monitoring, and cooperation to combat IUU fishing, which deprives nations of an estimated 8 to 14 million tons of fish annually, with net economic losses of $11 to $36 billion .
• Responsible Actor: FAO / UNODC / INTERPOL / World Bank / Regional Fisheries Management Organisations (RFMOs).
• Completion Looks Like:
  • Universal ratification and implementation of the Port State Measures Agreement (PSMA), which requires fishing vessels to obtain permission for docking at ports and share details of fishing operations, and permission can be denied if unregulated fishing has occurred .
  • Enhanced global satellite monitoring and vessel tracking (VMS, AIS) to detect and deter IUU fishing, with a global “fleet transparency” standard .
  • IUU fishing included in the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, with binding obligations for member states to criminalise and prosecute IUU fishing, recognising that IUU fishing is a form of transnational organised crime .
  • Stronger penalties and deterrents for IUU fishing, including vessel seizures, fines, and imprisonment, recognising that penalties tend to be low while relevant laws are murky and less stringent than other criminal activities .
  • International cooperation and information sharing on IUU fishing, including through RFMOs and INTERPOL.
  • Global “Fish Traceability” standard to ensure that all seafood sold internationally is legal and sustainable.

Step 7 – Address Transboundary Fisheries Security Risks Globally

• Action: Develop a global framework for managing transboundary fisheries resources, with a focus on diplomatic engagement, data sharing, conflict prevention, and cooperative management.
• Responsible Actor: UN / FAO / UNCLOS / International Law Commission / World Bank / G20.
• Completion Looks Like:
  • Strengthening of Regional Fisheries Management Organisations (RFMOs) with binding authority and enforcement mechanisms, recognising that militarised interstate disputes over fisheries raise the spectre of future intensified conflicts as fish stocks dwindle or move .
  • Establishment of transboundary fisheries commissions for all major international fisheries, with joint monitoring, data sharing, and cooperative management.
  • Global “Fisheries Cooperation” fund to support dialogue, data sharing, and joint management in transboundary fisheries.
  • Inclusion of fisheries security as a standing agenda item in UN Security Council deliberations and military-to-military engagements, as recommended by the ecological security matrix findings .
  • Development of contingency plans for fisheries-related conflicts, including diplomatic, economic, and security responses, recognising that the risk of conflict in regions like the South China Sea grows precipitously as compound pressures on fisheries intermingle with increasingly nationalised rhetoric .

Step 8 – Reform Global Fisheries Subsidies and Trade Rules

• Action: Overhaul global fisheries subsidies and trade rules to eliminate harmful subsidies that promote overfishing and to incentivise sustainable fisheries management.
• Responsible Actor: WTO / FAO / World Bank / G20.
• Completion Looks Like:
  • Global ban on fisheries subsidies that contribute to overcapacity and overfishing (as part of ongoing WTO negotiations), recognising that subsidies can promote overfishing .
  • WTO rules revised to allow trade sanctions on fisheries products from countries with poor fisheries management or high IUU fishing rates.
  • Global “Sustainable Seafood” certification and labelling standard, to empower consumers to choose sustainable products.
  • Support for small-scale and artisanal fisheries that are more sustainable and provide livelihoods, recognising that the vast majority of people dependent on fisheries for employment are in developing countries .

Step 9 – Establish a Global “Fisheries Security and Resilience” Investment Fund

• Action: Create a large-scale, publicly capitalized Global Fisheries Security and Resilience Fund (GFSRF) to finance fisheries security, ecosystem restoration, and resilience-building in fisheries-dependent and vulnerable regions.
• Responsible Actor: UN / World Bank / G20 / IMF.
• Completion Looks Like: The GFSRF is operational, with a multi-billion dollar capitalization from contributions from member states (e.g., based on GDP, fisheries catch, and historical responsibility for overfishing), a global financial transaction tax, and other innovative financing. It funds:
  • Ecosystem restoration in critical fisheries habitats (coral reefs, mangroves, kelp forests).
  • Sustainable fisheries management and enforcement.
  • IUU fishing detection and prosecution.
  • Transboundary fisheries cooperation and joint management.
  • Support for sustainable aquaculture (mariculture) with strict environmental standards.
  • Just transition support for fishing communities and workers affected by fisheries reforms.

Step 10 – Establish a Global “Fisheries Debt” Settlement and Just Transition Agreement

• Action: A global treaty to address historical and ongoing fisheries-related ecological debt, including reparations for overfishing, habitat destruction, and support for fisheries security in vulnerable nations.
• Responsible Actor: UN / FAO / UNEP / G20.
• Completion Looks Like:
  • A global agreement that:
    • Acknowledges the historical responsibility of high-income nations for overfishing, habitat destruction, and fisheries depletion .
    • Provides for “Fisheries Debt” compensation for vulnerable nations (e.g., for IUU fishing harms, habitat destruction, climate impacts on fish stocks).
    • Establishes a global mechanism for technology transfer and capacity building for sustainable fisheries management and fisheries security.
    • Includes binding targets for fisheries sustainability, ecosystem restoration, and IUU fishing reduction.
    • Ensures that the transition does not create new forms of inequality or exploitation (just transition principles).

Step 11 – Establish a Global “Truth and Reconciliation” Process for Fisheries Narratives

• Action: A multi-stakeholder global dialogue to challenge the dominant siloed narrative that fisheries are merely a food or resource issue, and to build a new, shared understanding of fisheries as an ecological security issue.
• Responsible Actor: FAO / UNESCO / UN / Civil Society Organisations (CSOs).
• Completion Looks Like:
  • A global campaign to promote fisheries and ecological literacy, explaining the role of ecosystems, pollution, and climate change in fisheries security .
  • The development of new narratives in media, education, and public discourse that move beyond siloed thinking and embrace an integrated fisheries security perspective.
  • The fostering of a global civil society movement (e.g., a “Global Fisheries Security Alliance”) to advocate for these reforms.

3. Polycrisis Strand(s)

Primary strand: Food, health and disease
Interaction effects with other strands:

• Climate change: Climate change is causing fish stocks to shift poleward and to deeper waters, with associated geopolitical implications, as seen in the “Mackerel War” between Iceland, Norway, the EU, and the Faroe Islands .
• Pollution, toxics and waste: Pollution (plastics, nutrients, chemicals) degrades fisheries habitats and harms fish stocks, with marine plastic pollution having grown at least tenfold since 1980 .
• Biodiversity loss: Fish stock depletion is a primary driver of marine biodiversity loss, with many commercially important fisheries collapsing due to overfishing and habitat degradation .
• Inequality: The burden of fish stock depletion falls unequally on vulnerable populations, particularly in developing countries where fish is a critical protein source .
• Governance, peace and conflict: Fisheries disputes are a growing source of international tension, with militarised interstate disputes over fisheries occurring regularly .
• Globalisation and finance: IUU fishing is a form of transnational organised crime, with global economic losses of $11 to $36 billion annually .
• Energy and mineral resources: Fish stocks are affected by offshore oil and gas extraction, which can harm fisheries habitats .
• Urbanisation and migration: Fish stock depletion can drive migration as fishing communities lose their livelihoods, as seen in Somalia where piracy emerged in part due to foreign illegal fishing .

4. Scale Category

Notes on scale interaction: “Requires a global-level governance framework to enable and coordinate change at all lower scales. Without global rules on fisheries management, pollution, trade, and IUU fishing, national-level reforms can be undermined by free-riding and a ‘race to the bottom.’ Fisheries security is a global public good problem requiring global solutions.”

5. Dewey Decimal Classification

Primary DDC: 333.956 – Fisheries and fish resources
Secondary DDC(s): 363.7 – Environmental problems; 338.3727 – Fisheries economics; 577 – Ecology; 327.17 – International security; 341.762 – Fisheries law; 341.44 – International water law; 341.45 – Law of the sea
Subject headings (LC or local): “Fisheries – international cooperation”, “Ecological security”, “Overfishing – international cooperation”, “Illegal fishing – international cooperation”, “Fish stock depletion”, “Fisheries management – international cooperation”, “Transboundary fisheries”, “Fisheries and conflict”, “Marine protected areas”, “Sustainable fisheries – international cooperation”

6. Regional Applicability

Evidenced implementations:

• UN Fish Stocks Agreement: A precedent for transboundary fisheries management (though not universally ratified).
• Port State Measures Agreement (PSMA): A precedent for international cooperation on IUU fishing (though not universally ratified) .
• Regional Fisheries Management Organisations (RFMOs): Precedents for regional fisheries cooperation (though often inadequate).
• Iceland/Norway/EU (Mackerel dispute): A precedent for fisheries conflict and the need for cooperative management .
• South China Sea fisheries disputes: A precedent for fisheries-related geopolitical tensions .
• UNCLOS: A precedent for international law of the sea.

Climatic/geographic scope: [ ] Tropical [ ] Temperate [ ] Arid [ ] Arctic/sub-arctic [ ] Coastal [x] All
Political economy prerequisites: “Requires a high degree of international political will and cooperation. It is a ‘public good’ that is vulnerable to free-riding by powerful nations or corporations. The absence of a binding global authority makes this the most challenging scale of implementation. Requires a global scientific consensus and a public that can be mobilised around fisheries and ecological issues.”

Contraindications: “Opposition from powerful nations (especially major fishing nations and seafood importers) and transnational corporations (especially in the fishing and seafood industry) that benefit from the current system is likely to be intense. A unilateral approach by one country may lead to capital flight and fisheries-related disputes.”

7. Cost Estimate

Cost notes: “This is a global public investment strategy, not a traditional ‘cost.’ The resources required are already in the global economy but are currently directed towards value extraction (e.g., unsustainable fishing, harmful subsidies). The solution is about redirecting global capital flows towards fisheries security and sustainability. Initial ‘costs’ are for diplomacy, institution-building, and technical assistance, which are relatively low. The ‘investment’ is in the tens to hundreds of billions of dollars but is designed to generate a massive positive return in terms of food security, conflict prevention, economic stability, and ecological resilience. The cost of inaction (unchecked fish stock depletion, fisheries-related conflict, food insecurity) is orders of magnitude higher.”

Funding mechanisms used in existing implementations: “Global taxes (financial transaction tax, carbon tax, polluter-pays taxes), redirected subsidies (away from harmful fisheries subsidies and towards sustainable practices), reallocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) at the IMF, and contributions from member states based on GDP and fisheries catch.”

8. Timescale Estimate

Time to initial implementation: 5-10 years (to establish the Global Commission, reach an international consensus on key reforms, and negotiate a treaty framework).
Time to measurable impact: 10-15 years (to see first effects on global fish stocks, ecosystem health, and fisheries productivity).
Time horizon of full benefit: 25-50 years (a generational shift to a new global fisheries security paradigm).
Short-term vs long-term tension note: “This is a long-term project of global institutional transformation. In the short term, it requires significant political capital and will face immense opposition from entrenched interests. The ‘sacrifice’ is the loss of profits for unsustainable fishing industries and harmful subsidy recipients, and a loss of sovereignty for nations (especially major fishing nations). The long-term benefit is the avoidance of fisheries-related conflict, food insecurity, and economic disruption, and the creation of a more stable, equitable, and sustainable global fisheries system.”

9. Evidence Base

Primary source(s): Schoonover, R., Cavallo, C., and Caltabiano, I. (2021). The Security Threat That Binds Us: The Unraveling of Ecological and Natural Security and What the United States Can Do About It. The Council on Strategic Risks.
Supporting source(s):

• Schoonover, R. and Smith, D. (2023). Five Urgent Questions on Ecological Security. SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security, No. 2023/05. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
• FAO. (2020). The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2020. https://doi.org/10.4060/ca9229en
• Sumaila, U. R. et al. (2020). Illicit trade in marine fish catch and its effects on ecosystems and people worldwide. Science Advances, 6(9), eaz3801. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz3801
• Pauly, D. and Zeller, D. (2016). Catch reconstructions reveal that global marine fisheries catches are higher than reported and declining. Nature Communications, 7, 10244. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10244
• Glaser, S. M. et al. (2019). Armed conflict and fisheries in the Lake Victoria Basin. Ecology and Society, 24(1), 25. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10787-240125
• Daxecker, U. and Prins, B. (2013). Insurgents of the Sea: Institutional and Economic Opportunities for Maritime Piracy. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 57(6), 940-965. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002712453709
• World Bank. (2019). Illegal Logging, Fishing, and Wildlife Trade: The Costs and How to Combat It. https://doi.org/10.1596/32806
• UNCLOS. (1982). United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf
• UN Fish Stocks Agreement. (1995). Agreement for the Implementation of the Provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea of 10 December 1982 relating to the Conservation and Management of Straddling Fish Stocks and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks. https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/fish_stocks_agreement/CONF164_37.htm

Evidence quality: [x] Peer-reviewed [x] Grey literature [x] Practitioner case study [x] Modelled projection
Known counter-evidence or limitations: “This is a systemic solution that is still emerging in policy practice. The evidence for individual components is strong (fisheries stock assessments, IUU fishing data, conflict databases), but the integration of fisheries security as a global ecological security issue across food, environment, and security sectors is novel and untested at global scale. The primary limitation is political: the dominance of siloed global governance (FAO vs UNEP vs Security Council) and resistance from vested interests in the fishing industry and harmful subsidy regimes. The cooperation-over-conflict narrative for fisheries may not hold in the future as stocks decline and shift due to climate change .”

Supporting media (external links only):

• https://www.fao.org/fishery/en/ – FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department.
• https://www.fao.org/state-of-fisheries-aquaculture/en/ – FAO State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture report.
• https://naturalsecurity.us/ – Natural Security campaign resources.
• https://www.councilonstrategicrisks.org/ – Council on Strategic Risks ecological security resources.
• https://oceansbeyondpiracy.org/ – Oceans Beyond Piracy resources on IUU fishing and maritime security.
• https://globalfishingwatch.org/ – Global Fishing Watch satellite monitoring of fishing activity.
• https://www.un.org/depts/los/index.htm – UN Division for Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea.

Link verification date: 10/07/2026

10. Implementation Indicators

Output indicators:

• Number of nations ratifying and implementing the strengthened UN Fish Stocks Agreement.
• Number of nations ratifying and implementing the Port State Measures Agreement.
• Number of transboundary fisheries commissions established (all major fisheries).
• Number of nations implementing binding fisheries pollution reduction targets.
• Capitalisation of the Global Fisheries Security and Resilience Fund ($ billions).
• Number of nations with integrated fisheries security governance frameworks.
• Number of nations with fisheries security integrated into NDCs and biodiversity targets.

Outcome indicators:

• Global fish stock status (% of stocks sustainably fished, overfished, collapsed).
• Global fisheries catch (metric tons, by species).
• Global fisheries productivity (catch per unit effort).
• Global fisheries employment and livelihoods.
• Global fish consumption and food security indicators.
• Global incidence of fisheries-related conflicts (subnational and transboundary).
• Global progress on SDG 14 (life below water).
• Global GDP losses attributable to fisheries depletion.
• Global fisheries habitat health indicators (coral reef cover, mangrove extent, kelp forest area, ocean acidification).
• Global IUU fishing estimates and enforcement statistics.

Reporting mechanism: “An annual report by the Global Commission on Fisheries Security and Ecological Resilience (or a successor body, e.g., a UN Fisheries Security Council or a new UN agency) to the UN General Assembly, assessing the performance of the new global governance framework against the indicators above.”

11. Related Entries

• GSTIA Entry: Establish a national ecological security framework to combat fish stock depletion (Nation State Scale)
• GSTIA Entry: Establish a global ecological economic governance framework that recognises planetary limits (Global Scale)
• GSTIA Entry: Global Fisheries Security Monitoring and Early Warning System
• GSTIA Entry: Global Convention on Fisheries Pollution and Habitat Protection
• GSTIA Entry: Global Fisheries Security and Resilience Fund
• GSTIA Entry: Global Transboundary Fisheries Cooperation Framework
• GSTIA Entry: Global IUU Fishing Enforcement Treaty
• GSTIA Entry: Global Fisheries Subsidies Reform Agreement
• GSTIA Entry: Global Fisheries Debt Settlement and Just Transition Agreement
• GSTIA Entry: Planetary Boundaries Governance Framework

ENTRY ID: SCALE-AMR-GLOBAL-001
Date added: 10/07/2026
Entry status: [ ] Draft [ ] Under review [x] Published
Submitted by: GSTIA Library Team
LLM: DeepSeek-R1

1. Solution Title

Establish a global ecological security governance framework to combat antimicrobial resistance driven by planetary disruption.

2. Step-by-Step Implementation Guide

This guide outlines a sequenced, multi-decade strategy for global governance institutions (UN, WHO, FAO, UNEP, IPCC, IPBES, World Bank, WTO, G20) and coalitions of nation-states to address antimicrobial resistance (AMR) as a global ecological security threat. The approach recognises that AMR emerges not only from clinical antibiotic overuse but is amplified by pollution, climate change, nutrient overabundance, ecosystem degradation, and the transboundary movement of pathogens and pollutants .

Step 1 – Establish a Global Commission on Ecological Security and Antimicrobial Resistance

• Action: The UN General Assembly, with support from WHO, FAO, UNEP, and the G20, mandates the creation of an independent High-Level Commission on Ecological Security and Antimicrobial Resistance.
• Responsible Actor: UN Secretary-General / WHO Director-General / FAO Director-General / UNEP Executive Director.
• Completion Looks Like: The Commission is formed with a 3-year mandate, comprising leading ecologists, epidemiologists, microbiologists, ecological economists, and security experts. Its core tasks are to:
  1. Formally recognise AMR as an ecological security threat driven by planetary disruption, not merely a public health issue .
  2. Develop a “Global Ecological AMR Framework” integrating environmental, agricultural, clinical, and veterinary dimensions.
  3. Map global AMR risk pathways, including the role of pollution (heavy metals, microplastics), climate change, nutrient overabundance, and ecosystem degradation in driving resistance emergence .
  4. Propose a “Global Deal” for a just transition to a post-antibiotic-resistant world.

Step 2 – Establish a Global Ecological AMR Surveillance and Early Warning System

• Action: Create a globally integrated surveillance network monitoring AMR emergence across environmental, agricultural, clinical, and veterinary sectors, with specific focus on environmental drivers (pollution, temperature, nutrient loading, ecosystem disruption).
• Responsible Actor: WHO / FAO / UNEP / World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) / World Bank.
• Completion Looks Like:
  • Global environmental AMR surveillance network established at major water bodies, aquaculture sites, agricultural zones, and biodiversity hotspots, including monitoring of metal contamination (copper, zinc, lead, nickel, chromium) as co-drivers of antibiotic resistance .
  • Global AMR data platform with open-access sharing, integrating environmental, climate, agricultural, and health data.
  • Early warning indicators for:
    • Emergence of novel AMR pathogens in environmental reservoirs.
    • Climate-AMR interactions (temperature-resistance correlations) .
    • Nutrient overabundance and biofilm hotspots where bacteria can be up to 1,000 times more resistant to antibiotics .
    • Zoonotic spillover risks amplified by ecological disruption .
  • Annual global “State of Ecological AMR” report to the UN General Assembly.

Step 3 – Regulate Global Pollution and Nutrient Overabundance as AMR Drivers

• Action: Establish binding global agreements to reduce pollution and nutrient loading that serve as environmental drivers of AMR emergence.
• Responsible Actor: UNEP / FAO / WHO / WTO / G20.
• Completion Looks Like:
  • Global treaty on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff, with binding limits on agricultural and industrial discharges, given that nutrient overabundance promotes fungal pathogen growth and creates biofilm reservoirs for resistance .
  • Global convention on heavy metal pollution, regulating discharges of copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and chromium into water bodies, as metal contamination co-selects for antibiotic resistance genes even in the absence of antibiotic exposure .
  • Global plastics treaty that includes AMR provisions, given evidence that environmental microplastics provide breeding grounds for antibiotic resistance .
  • Mandatory global wastewater treatment standards that remove both antibiotic residues and AMR-driving pollutants.
  • Global ban on sub-therapeutic antibiotic use in animal agriculture and aquaculture.

Step 4 – Integrate AMR into Global Climate and Biodiversity Governance

• Action: Ensure that AMR is treated as a core component of global climate adaptation and biodiversity governance frameworks, recognising that climate change, biodiversity loss, and AMR are mutually reinforcing drivers of ecological insecurity.
• Responsible Actor: UNFCCC / CBD / IPCC / IPBES / WHO.
• Completion Looks Like:
  • Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement include AMR risk assessments and adaptation measures, recognising that climate change influences AMR through its impacts on microbial dynamics, host-pathogen interactions, and bacterial replication and mutation rates .
  • Global biodiversity targets (post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework) include AMR as a threat multiplier, given that ecosystem degradation is a shared driver of both biodiversity loss and AMR emergence .
  • IPCC and IPBES assessments include AMR as a cross-cutting issue in their future reports.
  • Extreme weather event planning (floods, droughts) incorporates AMR risk, given that such events disrupt sanitation systems and create conditions that can lead to greater antibiotic use and misuse .

Step 5 – Reform Global Agricultural and Aquaculture Systems to Reduce AMR Selection Pressure

• Action: Transform global agricultural and aquaculture systems to reduce the environmental selection pressure for AMR, addressing both antibiotic use and the ecological conditions that amplify resistance.
• Responsible Actor: FAO / WHO / WTO / World Bank / G20.
• Completion Looks Like:
  • Global treaty on antibiotic use in livestock, aquaculture, and crop production, with binding reduction targets and phase-out of sub-therapeutic use.
  • Global promotion of agroecological practices that reduce chemical inputs and carbon emissions, recognising that nature-based solutions can mitigate AMR risk through ecological processes .
  • Global investment in sustainable manure management strategies (composting, anaerobic digestion) to reduce antibiotic residues in soil and water while simultaneously enhancing carbon sequestration and soil fertility .
  • Global fund for constructed wetlands and mangrove restoration for treating agricultural and hospital wastewater, reducing pharmaceutical pollutants and antibiotic residues while restoring biodiversity .
  • WTO rules revised to allow countries to impose trade restrictions on agricultural products from nations with high AMR risk.

Step 6 – Accelerate Global Natural Product Antibiotic Discovery and Development

• Action: Establish a global programme to accelerate the discovery, development, and equitable distribution of natural product antibiotics, recognising that approximately 70% of existing antibiotics are derived from natural sources and that natural compounds often target multiple bacterial pathways simultaneously, reducing the likelihood of resistance .
• Responsible Actor: WHO / World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) / UNDP / Wellcome Trust / G20.
• Completion Looks Like:
  • Global fund for natural product antibiotic discovery, including:
    • Bioprospecting from underexplored ecological niches and uncultured microorganisms, which account for 99% of global microbial diversity and represent a vast, largely untapped reservoir of novel antimicrobial compounds .
    • Genome mining and modern analytical methods to identify biosynthetic gene clusters .
    • Development of formulation advancements (e.g., nanoparticle encapsulation) to enhance bioavailability and activity of natural compounds .
  • Global repository for natural antimicrobial compounds, with open-access data sharing.
  • TRIPS flexibilities fully utilised to ensure equitable access to new antibiotics, particularly for developing countries.
  • Global “Antibiotic Innovation and Access” treaty that decouples antibiotic R&D from patent-driven monopolies, using prize funds and advance market commitments instead.

Step 7 – Launch a Global “One Health” AMR Action Framework with Just Transition Principles

• Action: Develop and implement a comprehensive global “One Health” AMR action framework that integrates human, animal, and environmental health sectors, with explicit attention to just transition principles.
• Responsible Actor: WHO / FAO / UNEP / WOAH / World Bank / UNDP.
• Completion Looks Like:
  • Global AMR action plan with binding targets for reducing AMR prevalence in clinical, agricultural, and environmental settings, and monitoring their implementation.
  • Procedural justice mechanisms ensuring inclusive decision-making in global AMR policy, particularly for developing countries and smallholder farmers who may be disproportionately affected by antibiotic use restrictions .
  • Distributive justice considerations ensuring that the benefits and harms of AMR interventions are fairly distributed, given that the burden of AMR falls unequally on developing countries and vulnerable populations .
  • Global “Just Transition” fund to support smallholder farmers, aquaculture workers, and pharmaceutical workers in transitioning to AMR-resilient practices.
  • Place-based approaches and participatory monitoring, co-designed with communities rather than imposed as technical fixes .

Step 8 – Reform Global Financial Architecture to Account for AMR and Ecological Risk

• Action: Mandate that all global financial institutions (IMF, World Bank, BIS, commercial banks, pension funds, insurance companies, asset managers) assess and disclose their exposure to AMR and ecological risk.
• Responsible Actor: Financial Stability Board (FSB) / Bank for International Settlements (BIS) / IMF / World Bank / G20.
• Completion Looks Like:
  • Global financial institutions required to conduct AMR stress tests, with scenarios including:
    • 10 million annual AMR deaths by 2050, as projected .
    • $11 trillion cumulative economic burden of AMR to 2050 .
    • Disruption to agricultural, healthcare, and pharmaceutical supply chains.
    • Increased sovereign debt defaults in AMR-vulnerable nations.
  • Risk-weighting of assets to reflect AMR vulnerability (e.g., pharmaceutical supply chains, intensive agriculture, vulnerable healthcare systems).
  • Global divestment mandates for public pension funds and sovereign wealth funds from high-AMR-risk industries (e.g., intensive livestock, polluting industries).
  • Creation of a global “AMR Resilience Bond” market to finance AMR prevention and adaptation.

Step 9 – Establish a Global “Ecological Debt” Settlement for AMR and Ecosystem Degradation

• Action: A global treaty to address historical and ongoing ecological debt, including reparations for AMR-related health impacts and support for AMR prevention in vulnerable nations.
• Responsible Actor: UN / WHO / UNEP / G20.
• Completion Looks Like:
  • A global agreement that:
    • Acknowledges the historical responsibility of high-income nations for ecological disruption that drives AMR .
    • Provides for “AMR Loss and Damage” compensation for vulnerable nations.
    • Establishes a global mechanism for technology transfer and capacity building for AMR prevention and natural product discovery.
    • Includes binding targets for pollution reduction, antibiotic use reduction, and AMR surveillance.
    • Ensures that the transition does not create new forms of inequality or exploitation.

Step 10 – Establish a Global “Truth and Reconciliation” Process for Ecological and Health Narratives

• Action: A multi-stakeholder global dialogue to challenge the dominant siloed narrative that AMR is merely a public health or clinical issue, and to build a new, shared understanding of AMR as an ecological security threat.
• Responsible Actor: WHO / UNESCO / UN / Civil Society Organisations (CSOs).
• Completion Looks Like:
  • A global campaign to promote ecological and health literacy, explaining the role of pollution, climate change, and ecosystem degradation in AMR emergence .
  • The development of new narratives in media, education, and public discourse that move beyond siloed thinking and embrace a One Health, ecological security perspective.
  • The fostering of a global civil society movement (e.g., a “Global Ecological Health Alliance”) to advocate for these reforms.

3. Polycrisis Strand(s)

Primary strand: Food, health and disease
Interaction effects with other strands:

• Climate change: Climate change influences AMR directly through its impacts on microbial dynamics, host-pathogen interactions, and bacterial replication and mutation rates, while also modifying habitat, distribution, evolution, and transmission of climate-sensitive pathogens .
• Pollution, toxics and waste: Pollution (heavy metals, microplastics, nutrients) is a direct environmental driver of AMR emergence, with antibiotic resistance genes detected in bacterial samples that had no known antibiotic exposure but high concentrations of metal contamination .
• Biodiversity loss: Ecosystem degradation is a shared driver of both biodiversity loss and AMR emergence, and the loss of biodiversity reduces the resilience of ecosystems to pathogen outbreaks .
• Inequality: The burden of AMR falls unequally on developing countries and vulnerable populations, with deaths in children under 5 from sepsis having dropped by 60% since 1990, but the proportion of those infants with AMR infections has increased .
• Governance, peace and conflict: Ecological disruption is a driver of instability, with AMR posing risks to social cohesion, political stability, and security .
• Energy and mineral resources: Nutrient overabundance (nitrogen and phosphorus) from fertiliser use is a key driver of fungal pathogen proliferation and biofilm formation .
• Globalisation and finance: The global economic burden of AMR to 2050 is estimated at $11 trillion, with profound implications for global financial stability and development .

4. Scale Category

Notes on scale interaction: “Requires a global-level governance framework to enable and coordinate change at all lower scales. Without global rules on pollution, antibiotic use, and trade, national-level reforms can be undermined by free-riding and a ‘race to the bottom.’ AMR is a global public good problem requiring global solutions.”

5. Dewey Decimal Classification

Primary DDC: 616.9041 – Antimicrobial resistance and drug-resistant pathogens
Secondary DDC(s): 363.7 – Environmental problems; 333.7 – Natural resources, energy, and environment; 338.927 – Sustainable development; 577 – Ecology; 327.17 – International security; 341.7 – International environmental law; 636.089 – Veterinary medicine
Subject headings (LC or local): “Antimicrobial resistance – international cooperation”, “Ecological security”, “One Health”, “Global environmental health”, “Drug resistance in microorganisms”, “Pollution – health aspects – international cooperation”, “Climate change – health aspects”, “Biosphere – security implications”, “Transboundary environmental risks”

6. Regional Applicability

Evidenced implementations:

• WHO Global Action Plan on AMR: A partial precedent for global AMR governance.
• FAO/WHO/WOAH One Health approach: A precedent for integrated human, animal, and environmental health policy.
• UNEP Global Plastics Treaty (in negotiation): A potential precedent for global pollution governance with AMR relevance.
• EU Green Deal and Farm to Fork Strategy: A regional example of integrated agricultural and environmental policy .
• UNFCCC Paris Agreement: A precedent for global climate governance (though insufficient).

Climatic/geographic scope: [ ] Tropical [ ] Temperate [ ] Arid [ ] Arctic/sub-arctic [ ] Coastal [x] All
Political economy prerequisites: “Requires a high degree of international political will and cooperation. It is a ‘public good’ that is vulnerable to free-riding by powerful nations or corporations. The absence of a binding global authority makes this the most challenging scale of implementation. Requires a global scientific consensus and a public that can be mobilised around health and ecological issues.”

Contraindications: “Opposition from powerful nations (especially agricultural exporters and major polluters) and transnational corporations (especially in pharmaceuticals, agribusiness, and extractive industries) that benefit from the current system is likely to be intense. A unilateral approach by one country may lead to capital flight and carbon leakage.”

7. Cost Estimate

Cost notes: “This is a global public investment strategy, not a traditional ‘cost.’ The resources required are already in the global economy but are currently directed towards value extraction (e.g., polluting industries, reactive healthcare). The solution is about redirecting global capital flows towards AMR prevention. Initial ‘costs’ are for diplomacy, institution-building, and technical assistance, which are relatively low. The ‘investment’ is in the hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars but is designed to generate a massive positive return in terms of human health, economic productivity, and global stability. The cost of inaction (unchecked AMR) is estimated at $11 trillion cumulative economic burden to 2050 .”

Funding mechanisms used in existing implementations: “Global taxes (financial transaction tax, carbon tax, polluter-pays taxes), redirected subsidies (away from intensive agriculture and towards sustainable practices), reallocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) at the IMF, and contributions from member states based on GDP and ecological footprint.”

8. Timescale Estimate

Time to initial implementation: 5-10 years (to establish the Global Commission, reach an international consensus on key reforms, and negotiate a treaty framework).
Time to measurable impact: 10-15 years (to see first effects on global AMR prevalence, pollution levels, and antibiotic use).
Time horizon of full benefit: 25-50 years (a generational shift to a new global ecological health paradigm).
Short-term vs long-term tension note: “This is a long-term project of global institutional transformation. In the short term, it requires significant political capital and will face immense opposition from entrenched interests. The ‘sacrifice’ is the loss of profits for polluting and intensive agricultural industries, and a loss of sovereignty for nations (especially those with large agricultural and pharmaceutical sectors). The long-term benefit is the avoidance of a ‘pre-penicillin’ era, with all its implications for health, economic productivity, and social stability .”

9. Evidence Base

Primary source(s): Schoonover, R. and Smith, D. (2023). Five Urgent Questions on Ecological Security. SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security, No. 2023/05. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Supporting source(s):

• Review on Antimicrobial Resistance, Chaired by Jim O’Neill (2016). Tackling Drug-resistant Infections Globally: Final Report and Recommendations.
• Adekannbi, A. O., Olawuni, O. G. and Olaposi, A. V. (2021). Metal contamination and coexistence of metal and antibiotic resistance in Vibrio species recovered from aquaculture ponds. Bulletin of the National Research Centre, 45(1).
• Rukomeza, G. et al. (2025). Nature-Based Solutions to Promote Just Transitions for Climate Change and Antimicrobial Resistance. Public Humanities, Cambridge University Press.
• Barry, S. M. (2025). Rethinking natural product discovery to unblock the antibiotic pipeline. Future Microbiology, Taylor & Francis.
• Yang, Y-Y. et al. (2025). A novel strategy for combating multidrug-resistant bacteria: Natural products from uncultured microorganisms. European Journal of Medicinal Chemistry, ScienceDirect.
• MacFadden, D. R. et al. (2018). Antibiotic resistance increases with local temperature. Nature Climate Change, 8, 510-514.
• Li, W. et al. (2023). Association between antibiotic resistance and increasing ambient temperature in China. The Lancet Regional Health-Western Pacific, 30.
• WHO (2023). Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS) Report. World Health Organization.
• UNEP (2023). Bracing for Superbugs: Strengthening Environmental Action in the One Health Response to Antimicrobial Resistance. United Nations Environment Programme.

Evidence quality: [x] Peer-reviewed [x] Grey literature [x] Practitioner case study [x] Modelled projection
Known counter-evidence or limitations: “This is a systemic solution that is still emerging in policy practice. The evidence for individual components is strong (AMR surveillance, pollution regulation, natural product discovery), but the integration of AMR as a global ecological security issue across health, environment, and security sectors is novel and untested at global scale. The primary limitation is political: the dominance of siloed global governance (WHO vs UNEP vs FAO vs Security Council) and resistance from vested interests in high-polluting and intensive agricultural industries. The precautionary principle applies: decision makers should not wait until scientific uncertainty is eliminated before acting .”

Supporting media (external links only):

• https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2023-04/five_urgent_questions_0.pdf – Full SIPRI report on Five Urgent Questions on Ecological Security.
• https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2023/poorly-understood-environmental-trends-could-become-tomorrows-security-threats – SIPRI press release summarising the report’s findings.
• https://ecologicalfutures.com/just-released-five-urgent-questions-on-ecological-security/ – Rod Schoonover’s blog on the report.
• https://dansmithsblog.com/2023/04/24/ecological-security-five-questions/ – Dan Smith’s blog summarising the report.
• https://www.unep.org/interactives/bracing-for-superbugs/ – UNEP interactive report on environmental action for AMR.
• https://www.who.int/initiatives/glass – WHO Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System.

Link verification date: 10/07/2026

10. Implementation Indicators

Output indicators:

• Number of nations adopting the Global Ecological AMR Framework.
• Number of nations implementing binding pollution and nutrient reduction targets.
• Number of nations with mandatory environmental AMR surveillance systems.
• Capitalisation of the Global AMR Prevention and Adaptation Fund ($ billions).
• Number of nations with just transition programmes for smallholder farmers.
• Number of natural product antibiotic candidates in development globally.
• Number of nations with AMR integrated into NDCs and biodiversity targets.

Outcome indicators:

• Global AMR mortality rate (per 100,000 population).
• Global incidence of antibiotic-resistant infections (per 100,000).
• Global healthcare costs attributable to AMR ($).
• Global agricultural productivity losses attributable to AMR.
• Global water and soil quality indicators (nutrient loads, metal concentrations, microplastics).
• Global progress on WHO AMR action plan targets.
• Global antibiotic use in livestock and aquaculture (tons per year).
• Global greenhouse gas emissions (as a co-benefit of agricultural reform).
• Global biodiversity indicators (as a co-benefit of ecosystem restoration).

Reporting mechanism: “An annual report by the Global Commission on Ecological Security and Antimicrobial Resistance (or a successor body, e.g., a UN Security Council committee or a new UN agency) to the UN General Assembly, assessing the performance of the new global governance framework against the indicators above.”

11. Related Entries

• GSTIA Entry: Establish a national ecological security framework to combat antimicrobial resistance (Nation State Scale)
• GSTIA Entry: Establish a global ecological economic governance framework that recognises planetary limits (Global Scale)
• GSTIA Entry: Global Ecological AMR Surveillance and Early Warning System
• GSTIA Entry: Global Treaty on Pollution and Nutrient Overabundance
• GSTIA Entry: Global Antibiotic Innovation and Access Treaty
• GSTIA Entry: Global “One Health” AMR Action Framework
• GSTIA Entry: Global Just Transition Fund for AMR
• GSTIA Entry: Global Ecological Debt Settlement for AMR
• GSTIA Entry: Planetary Boundaries Governance Framework
• GSTIA Entry: Doughnut Economics National Transition Plan